6-Month North Pacific SST Pool Analogs For the Winter of 2014-2015.

Hello everyone, been awhile since I have blogged, been a busy last summer working at the Midwestern Regional Climate Center in Champaign, IL. As for me, I'm back to checking out what the coming winter could possibly be like. Here are the Top 10 Warmest NPAC analogs for the 30N-70N and 180W-130W bounded SST Pool from March to August in comparison to this last period (MAMJJA 2014) with respect to Winter (DJF) 500mb height anomalies.

These analogs are also broken down by ENSO category with respect to U.S. Temperatures during the November through March Period, notice areas of the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Eastern U.S. have a decent shot at seeing a cold winter based solely on past occurrences of ENSO/NPAC combinations. I wouldn't use this as an exact forecast for winter, but as guidance for the upcoming winter according to what the NPAC looks like now. Notice only one analog had a nation wide warm winter (2005-2006). The MEI is used as the metric to categorize ENSO status.