Thursday, July 10, 2014

Summer GWO Radii Model, ENSO Status, Cool Summer on Tap for most of country, West Coast Above Normal Temps...

  • The global wind oscillation is progressing along in a more neutral atmospheric ENSO phase where negative mountain and frictional torque rules instead of the "La Nina" like anomalies 15-45 days earlier. The GWO has yet to couple with the oceanic ENSO state. The oceanic ENSO state in the next 30-60 days should shift to Weak El Nino status, a much more tamed +ENSO event than many had already forecasted. The whole idea of a runaway El Nino like that of 97/98 or 82/83 did not make much sense looking at trends in NOI, SOI, and sub-surface temperature wise. This idea of a "Super El Nino" is nothing more than hype by some meteorological outlets and a few environmental pundits. That being said, the PDO being above 1.5 the 1st time since 2005 should help propel the oceanic ENSO Region 3.4 status to a likely moderate event of +1.0 to +1.2C by late fall.
  • The GWO Radii Model continues to allude to cooler temperatures over the Midsection and Eastern U.S. while the West Coast should be above normal temperature wise during July/August. This summer cool pattern is something we haven't seen since 2009.



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