A Winter North Atlantic Oscillation Predictor in the North Pacific ONLY during El Nino Events.

Here is a bit of climate research from the summer of 2004. It ONLY works during El Nino years defined with the 1971-2000 base period Oceanic Nino Index. From here we look to the North Pacific Sea Level Pressure status throughout October to be deterministic of the December-March North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). October SLP's below 1013-hPa indicate a higher likelihood of a -NAO, while SLP's above indicate a higher likelihood of a +NAO or Neutral NAO.

Now, the problem for the winter 2014-2015 is we don't know if we will have an official El Nino event as defined by the ONI (5 trimonthly periods of 0.5C or higher in Nino Region 3.4). Some models are predicting an El Nino, some are not. Right now, according to climatology I have used, the only type of +ENSO events that really can occur is a weak event, with a very outside chance of moderate.