Research: Constructing a Composite of Teleconnection Indices to Better Forecast Temperature over the Eastern United States

Here is a research paper I did during my Senior Year, it attempts to to combine teleconnections mathematically as a tool for Eastern U.S. Temperature Prediction.

 

Download The PDF: http://www.docdroid.net/file/download/9ftd/constructing-a-composite-of-teleconnection-indices-to-better-forecast-temperature-over-the-eastern-united-states-marinaro-2012.pdf

 

 

Constructing a Composite of Teleconnection Indices to Better Forecast Temperature over the Eastern United States

 

Alan Marinaro 

Department of Geography

Northern Illinois University

DeKalb, IL 60115

  

ABSTRACT: 

The agricultural, industrial, and financial sectors east of the 100W longitude line to the I-95 corridor of the United States, are directly or indirectly susceptible to the affects of surface air temperature. A new modeling regime to improve temperature forecasts would help curb weather risks, crop yields, and energy consumption within the most economically active part of the country. A new index is constructed to better describe the temperature over the eastern half of the country. Northern Hemispheric teleconnections are known to have direct effects on temperatures and 500mb geopotential heights over the United States. Three teleconnections that best describe atmospheric blocking over the eastern U.S. include the East Pacific Oscillation (EPO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Arctic Oscillation (AO). The EPO, NAO, and AO have a direct correlation with 500mb geopotential heights and surface air temperature east of the Rocky Mountains to the I-95 Corridor. Creating a composited & weighted time series from these three teleconnections using multiple regression created a more comprehensive tool to describe, forecast, and model surface temperatures for the eastern U.S. This is known as the Composite Blocking Index (CBI). Comparing the CBI composite time series with its components (EPO, NAO, and AO) individually, it shows a higher correlation with surface temperatures over the eastern U.S. The variance that describes the average surface temperature is increased 11.5% to 18.8% higher annually using the CBI in comparison to the NAO, AO, and EPO individually.

Keywords: Atmospheric Blocking, Teleconnections, North Atlantic Oscillation, & United States Temperatures.